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Joint
USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF
Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2011
...
IIA.
Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The
geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled levels from
04/2100-05/0300Z.
Quiet levels prevailed until after 1800Z. From
1800-2100Z,
minor to severe storm levels dominated. Solar wind data
from
ACE showed a shock-like feature passing ACE at 04/2105Z which
was
followed by a 20 nT sudden impulse at 04/2155Z. The solar phi
angle
showed rotation from negative to positive between 0300-1400Z.
An
additional shock passage was seen at ACE at 1722Z followed by a
noticeable
increase in solar wind density, velocity and magnetic
field.
An additional enhancement in the solar wind parameters was
observed
at 1834Z which include Bz fluctuation to -20 nT. Although
the
interpretation is not yet certain, timing analysis and model
simulation
suggest that the 1722Z & 1834Z enhancements are the first
two
of the three expected CME passages. GOES 15 observed
magnetopause
crossings between 1900Z-1915Z and 2000Z-2030Z. GOES 13
also
observed magnetopause crossings between 2000Z-2030Z. The
greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 04/0635Z reached a
peak
of 83 PFU at 05/1755Z and continues in progress.
IIB.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected
to reach minor to major storm levels with a chance for
severe
storm periods on 06 August. Heightened activity is expected
due
to continued effects from the CMEs of 02, 03, and 04 August.
Activity
is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on 07
August.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08 August.
...
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Joint
USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF
Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2011
...
IIA.
Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The
geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. Minor to
severe
storm periods were seen from 05/2100Z to 06/0600Z. The
period
started off with solar wind speeds reaching approximately 620
km/s
with a total field strength around 28 nT. The Bz component of
the
magnetic field was south around -20 nT for 2 hours before
crossing
into a positive region at approximately 05/2211Z. Solar
wind
speed, density, and total magnetic field strength slowly
decreased
throughout the period as the effects of the CME passage
began
to diminish. The period ended with a wind speed around 440
km/s
and Bt around 5 nT. The greater than 10 MeV protons above 10
PFU
event that began at 04/0635Z, reached a peak flux of 96 PFU at
05/2150Z,
and ended at 06/0515Z.
IIB.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected
to be unsettled to active on 07 August as a recurrent
coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
Levels
are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled on 08 August.
Mostly
quiet conditions are expected on 09 August.
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